References PRIF Spotlight 12/2024

by Mikhail Polianskii and Sascha Hach | To the publication

¹ Dembinski, Matthias, & Polianskii, Mikhail. (2024). Nuclear threats, nuclear deterrence, and the future of nuclear restraint regimes after Russia’s war of aggression. PRIF Report 5/2024. Retrieved from https://www.prif.org/fileadmin/Daten/Publikationen/Prif_Reports/2024/prif_5_2024barrierefrei.pdf (accessed December 23, 2024).

² Hach, Sascha, & Sinovets, Polina. (2023). War against Ukraine: How to make deterrence and arms control work. Note de la FRS, (11). Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique.

³ Kofman, Michael, Fink, Anya, & Edmonds, Jeffrey. (2020). Russian strategy for escalation management: Evolution of key concepts. CNA. Retrieved from https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1102855.pdf (accessed December 23, 2024).

⁴ Arbatov, Alexei, Bogdanov, Konstantin, & Stefanovich, Dmitry. (2023). Ядерная война — плохое средство решения проблем [Nuclear war is a poor means of solving problems]. Retrieved from https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6055340 (accessed December 23, 2024).

⁵ Russian Federation. (2024). Fundamentals of state policy of the Russian Federation on nuclear deterrence. Retrieved from https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/international_safety/disarmament/1434131/?lang=en (accessed December 23, 2024).

⁶ Johnson, Dave. (2021). Russia’s deceptive nuclear policy. Survival, 63(3), 123–142.

⁷ Helmore, Edward. (2022). Jake Sullivan: US will act “decisively” if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/25/us-russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-weapons-jake-sullivan (accessed December 23, 2024); Sonne, Paul, & Hudson, John. (2022). U.S. has sent private warnings to Russia against using nuclear weapons. The Washington Post, September 22, 2022. Retrieved from www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/22/russia-nuclear-threat-us-options/ (accessed December 23, 2024).

⁸ Reuters. (2022a). Xi, Scholz warn against “irresponsible” nuclear threats over Ukraine. Reuters, November 4, 2022. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/china/german-chancellor-scholz-lands-beijing-2022-11-04/ (accessed December 23, 2024).

⁹ The White House. (2022). G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration. Bali, Indonesia, November 15–16, 2022. Retrieved from www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/16/g20-bali-leaders-declaration/ (accessed December 23, 2024).

¹⁰ Union of Soviet Socialist Republics & United States. (1989). Agreement on reciprocal advance notification of major strategic exercises. International Legal Materials, 28(6), 1436–1437.

¹¹ Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, & United States. (1988). Agreement on notifications of launches of ballistic missiles. Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense. Retrieved from https://www.acq.osd.mil/asda/ssipm/sdc/tc/bma/index.html (accessed December 23, 2024).

¹² Reuters. (2022b). Russia notifies U.S. it will carry out expected nuclear drills. Reuters, October 27, 2022. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-has-notified-us-about-planned-nuclear-drills-pentagon-2022-10-25/ (accessed December 23, 2024).

¹³ New York Times. (2024). With use of new missile, Russia sends a threatening message to the West. New York Times, November 21, 2024. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/world/europe/russia-ballistic-missile-ukraine-war.html (accessed December 23, 2024).

¹⁴ Wiegel, Michaela. (2024). Macrons Ukraine-Strategie: Auf Trump vorbereitet sein. FAZ. Retrieved from https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/macrons-ukraine-strategie-auf-trump-vorbereitet-sein-110182457.html (accessed December 23, 2024).

¹⁵ Kellogg, Keith, & Fleitz, Fred. (2024). America first, Russia, & Ukraine. Research Report. Center for American Security, America First Policy Research Institute. Retrieved from https://americafirstpolicy.com/issues/america-first-russia-ukraine (accessed December 23, 2024).

¹⁶ Thompson, Leigh L. (2021). The mind and heart of the negotiator. London: Pearson, 82–104; Lax, David A., & Sebenius, James K. (1986). The manager as negotiator. New York: Free Press.

¹⁷ Schneider, Jonas. (2024). Deutschland und die Zukunft der nuklearen Rüstungskontrolle. Retrieved from https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/deutschland-und-die-zukunft-der-nuklearen-ruestungskontrolle (accessed December 23, 2024).

¹⁸ Trötschel, Roman, Hüffmeier, Joachim, Loschelder, David D., Schwartz, Katja, & Gollwitzer, Peter M. (2011). Perspective taking as a means to overcome motivational barriers in negotiations: When putting oneself into the opponent’s shoes helps to walk toward agreements. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 101(4), 771–790. And Galinsky, Adam D., Maddux, William W., Gilin, Debra, & White, Judith B. (2008). Why it pays to get inside the head of your opponent: The differential effects of perspective-taking and empathy in strategic interactions. Psychological Science, 19(4), 378–384; Raiffa, Howard. (1982). The art and science of negotiation. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

¹⁹ Lever, Paul. (2014). The Cold War: The golden age of arms control. Cold War History, 14(4), 501–513.

²⁰ Wentker, Hermann. (2024). Der Kalte Krieg als Geschichte und Gegenwart? Die Politische Meinung. Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. Retrieved from https://www.kas.de/de/web/die-politische-meinung/artikel/detail/-/content/der-kalte-krieg-als-geschichte-und-gegenwart (accessed December 17, 2024).

²¹ The White House. (2024). Joint statement from United States and Germany on long-range fires deployment in Germany. July 10, 2024. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/10/joint-statement-from-united-states-and-germany-on-long-range-fires-deployment-in-germany/ (accessed December 23, 2024).

²² Kütt, Moritz. (2024). Stationierung ab 2026? Ein Forum zur Bedeutung neuer Mittelstreckenraketen in Deutschland. Wissenschaft & Frieden, (4). Retrieved from https://wissenschaft-und-frieden.de/artikel/stationierung-ab-2026/ (accessed December 17, 2024).

²³ The Moscow Times. (2024). Putin threatens to restart production of mid-range nuclear weapons. The Moscow Times, July 28, 2024. Retrieved from https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/28/putin-threatens-to-restart-production-of-mid-range-nuclear-weapons-a85854 (accessed December 23, 2024).

²⁴ Arms Control Association. (2017). The presidential nuclear initiatives (PNIs) on tactical nuclear weapons at a glance. Retrieved from https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/presidential-nuclear-initiatives-pnis-tactical-nuclear-weapons-glance (accessed December 23, 2024).

²⁵ Ryabkov, Sergey (2023) Speech by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov at the XXII PIR Center International School on Global Security Issues. PIR Center. Retrieved from https://pircenter.org/news/vystuplenie-zamestitelja-ministra-inostrannyh-del-rossii-sergeja-rjabkova-na-xxii-mezhdunarodnoj-shkole-pir-centra-po-problemam-globalnoj-bezopasnosti/ (accessed December 23, 2024); The White House. (2023). Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan for the Arms Control Association (ACA) Annual Forum. June 2, 2023. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/06/02/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-for-the-arms-control-association-aca-annual-forum/ (accessed December 23, 2024). 

²⁶ Forst, Rainer. (2022). The justification of trust in conflict: Conceptual and normative groundwork. ConTrust Working Paper Series, (2).