Nuclear Threats, Nuclear Deterrence, and the Future of Nuclear Restraint Regimes After Russia’s War of Aggression

Russia’s war of agg­ression exa­cer­bates nuclear threats in mult­ifaceted and poten­tially cata­stro­phic ways, while dimi­nishing the prospects for arms control and nuclear re­straint re­gimes. In this, it is com­parable to the early pha­ses of the Cold War. This PRIF report criti­cally exa­mines the trans­for­mative impact Russia’s war is having on the contem­porary nuclear order, fo­cusing on the utility of nuclear weapons in crisis bar­gaining, the credi­bility and sources of extended deterrence, and the functions and limi­tations of arms control. Draw­ing on lessons from the past, the authors discuss what a future nuclear strategy might look like.