Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, collective defense has once again become NATO’s core mission. Can the United States under Donald Trump still be relied upon as a dependable guarantor? And which new threats, from China’s global rise to hybrid attacks, climate risks, and democratic backsliding, must be taken into account going forward?
The new study by PRIF researchers Matthias Dembinski and Hans-Joachim Spanger, commissioned by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, therefore examines the security-policy positions of both NATO member states and non-member countries. It draws on expert analyses from 14 nations collected between November 2024 and March 2025. The surveyed countries include major and smaller members (USA, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands), states on NATO’s northeastern flank (Poland, Lithuania, Finland, Sweden), and on its southern flank (Italy, Turkey). Perspectives from Ukraine and from NATO’s Secretary General are also incorporated into the analysis.
The study finds that Russia is still universally viewed as the primary threat, whereas China — though recognized as a geopolitical rival — has not yet been classified by most member states as an immediate military risk. At the same time, hybrid dangers in the South — from terrorism and migration to cyber-attacks — as well as societal challenges such as climate change and democratic erosion are growing in importance. Against this backdrop, Dembinski and Spanger outline three possible future pathways for the Alliance: the Europe-focused “Classic Plus,” the outward-looking “Global Outlook,” and the broad-based “Generation Z,” which also incorporates climate and societal issues. These scenarios are designed to keep NATO effective even as internal and external political conditions continue to evolve. They offer valuable guidance for policymakers, journalists, and the interested public.
This new study builds on the 2021 publication “Three versions for NATO” , edited by Matthias Dembinski and Caroline Fehl.
To read the full study, click here: “NATO's Uncertain Future”