For the fourth consecutive year, PRIF took part in the annual German Forum on Security Policy in 2026, organised by the Federal Academy for Security Policy. This well-attended online discussion addressed the potential applications, as well as the risks, of artificial intelligence in crisis prevention and strategic foresight — a topic that is becoming increasingly relevant in light of rapid technological developments and escalating crises worldwide. At the same time, however, German foreign and security policy is experiencing reductions in personnel and funding for crisis prevention.
Can AI tools help prevent crises, promote peace, and enable proactive action in foreign and security policy in this situation? Moderated by Yvonne Blum, the discussion featured Paul Flachenecker, Research Associate at the Global Public Policy Institute, Jonas Koll, representative Deputy Head of the 'Crisis Early Warning and Strategic Foresight' Division at the Federal Foreign Office, Daniel Mittermaier, Research Fellow at the Center of Excellence for Crisis Early Warning at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich, and Dr. Antonia Witt, Head of the African Intervention Politics Research Group at PRIF. One of the discussion's starting points was JOSHUA, an AI-supported system for conflict scenario planning currently being developed by PRIF in collaboration with TU Darmstadt.
The panel agreed that AI tools have significant potential to improve crisis prevention and strategic foresight by analysing data, thereby creating a better information base. However, such analyses alone are insufficient: Political and regional expertise is also required to assess potential scenarios and determine how AI can effectively support foreign and security policy. Better strategic foresight therefore requires strong interdisciplinary collaboration, as well as close cooperation between researchers and policymakers. This also highlights the limitations of AI: Particularly in political spheres, it is important that ethical decisions are ultimately made by knowledgeable experts.