Unmaking Interdependence: The Political Consequences of Economic Disengagement

Reducing inter­dependence appears to be a rational response to experiences of vulner­ability. By relying less on particular partners, states can reduce their exposure to sudden external shocks, such as pandemics, or to economic coercion by trading partners. Yet such policies also intervene in established political and economic relation­ships. Turning away from former partners can generate distrust and reduce other states' willing­ness to cooperate in the future.

The project centres on this ambivalence. It examines how disengagement from economic cooperation reshapes interstate relations and asks under what conditions these pro­cesses deepen political conflict and whether they can be managed without detrimental effects. It asks, in particular, whether the way disengagement is politically framed shapes its political consequences.

Building on International Relations scholar­ship on trade and conflict, the project develops a theoretical frame­work for analysing the political consequences of reducing inter­dependence. On this basis, it analyzes recent cases, in which states sought to reduce economic inter­dependence. It also examines an important side-effect of disengagement from established partner­ships: the creation of new ones. Efforts to compensate for lost cooperation through new partner­ships may themselves generate tensions and unexpected forms of political conflict.

The project contributes to a better under­standing of how states can address genuine vulnerabilities without turning the reorganisation of cooperation into a source of enduring mistrust, fragmentation and conflict.

Image: Ministerie van Defensie / SGT Aaron Zwaal via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0