Titled “The New Warlords: Containing the Dynamics of Violence!” the four leading German institutes for peace and conflict research – bicc, IFSH, INEF, and PRIF – analyze the state of the international order in their 2026 Peace Report. Their assessment: Military force is increasingly being used again as a regular instrument of international politics.
The authors describe a world in which states are increasingly acting like “warlords.” They disregard international rules and use force to advance political, economic, or territorial interests. This trend is particularly evident in the interventions of the U.S., Russia, and Israel, but also in the regional power projections of Pakistan, Turkey, Ethiopia, and the Gulf monarchies.
Based on this analysis, the report provides specific recommendations for action to the Federal Government and the Bundestag. Germany should consistently adhere to international law, leverage its role in Europe, and strengthen multilateral institutions. Additionally, new alliances are needed to ensure compliance with international rules. For national security, the peace report recommends building resilient value chains and striving for digital sovereignty. The researchers also see a need for action on domestic policy: anti-Muslim racism, anti-Semitism, and other forms of racism must be taken seriously as problems affecting society as a whole and tackled politically.
The report’s key findings are evident in several areas of conflict, ranging from the crisis at the United Nations to the pressures on development cooperation and new technological arms race dynamics.
Record levels of conflict: The Gulf states' power politics are fueling violence
According to the Peace Report, the period between 2021 and 2024 marks the most violent phase since the end of the Cold War. During this time, 61 armed conflicts were recorded in 36 countries, each involving at least one state actor. At the same time, the number of displaced people worldwide rose to more than 120 million in April 2025.
The report places particular emphasis on the role of the Gulf states. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are increasingly playing out their rivalries in crisis regions. In doing so, they sometimes act simultaneously as a party to the conflict and as mediators. This blurring of intervention and mediation complicates sustainable peace solutions and contributes to the perpetuation of existing conflicts.
The United Nations at a crossroads: reform or decline
According to the researchers, the United Nations (UN) also faces enormous pressure. Rivalries among major powers are blocking key decision-making processes, particularly in the Security Council. Added to this are budget cuts and competing political frameworks that further undermine the UN’s authority. Despite this crisis, the peace report sees no viable alternative to the global organization. Germany should therefore work together with medium-sized and smaller states to advocate for stable funding and reforms.
Development cooperation as the key to sustainable peace
According to the report, development cooperation and humanitarian aid are coming under increasing pressure. Drastic funding cuts clash with growing needs: conflicts, climate change, and state fragility are expanding the scope of international aid. The researchers warn that cuts exacerbate instability in fragile states and hinder effective prevention of violent conflicts. Germany should therefore advocate at the European and international levels for better coordination and greater effectiveness of development programs.
Shaping sustainable transitions to peace
Ceasefires alone do not guarantee peace, the report states. Sustainable peace processes require credible security guarantees, arrangements consistent with international law, a controlled approach to sanctions, and the establishment of stable state structures. This is particularly evident in the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Syria. It is crucial to incorporate measures for disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration, as well as reconstruction, into negotiations at an early stage.
New technologies are intensifying the arms race
According to the Peace Report, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, cyber capabilities, and biotechnology are transforming global security policy. They accelerate military processes, intensify cyberattacks, and facilitate disinformation. At the same time, they often elude established forms of control. However, the authors do not see only risks in this. New technologies could also be used to improve arms control. This would require flexible and internationally coordinated regulations.
Domestic peace in Germany under pressure
The Peace Report also turns its attention to the political climate in Germany. It argues that anti-Muslim racism is structurally entrenched and is reinforced by security policy discourse. Anti-Semitism is also widespread and must be addressed as a problem affecting society as a whole rather than being confined to Muslim communities. Democratic parties should resolutely oppose polarizing and racist discourse, for example in migration and asylum policy. Otherwise, the report warns, they would strengthen the agenda of authoritarian and far-right parties.
The authors at PRIF
In addition to serving as editorial director, PRIF contributed significantly to the 2026 Peace Report. Authors included Claudia Baumgart-Ochse, Christopher Daase, Nicole Deitelhoff, Mikhail Polianksii, Lucas Kori Leonhard, Malte Göttsche, Una Jakob, Thomas Reinhold, Kadri Reis, Liska Suckau, Felix Bethke, Sascha Hach, Stefan Kroll, Myriel Julie Mathez, Frederik Schissler, Johanna Speyer and Xinyu Yuan.
The 2026 Peace Report is now available at www.friedensgutachten.de and is published via transcript Verlag (in German).
