Deception & Inquiry in International Security: The logic of epistemic struggle from the Cold War to cyber conflict

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In recent years ‘de­ception’ has become a central problem of international security, underlying issues from disinformation and pro­paganda to information manipulation, cyber subversion and in­fluence campaigns. Yet despite a general political consensus that de­ception undermines the production of reliable political knowledge, it re­mains a surprisingly marginal and over­looked political con­cept. While authoritarian states em­brace deceit as a powerful weapon of statecraft, liberal demo­cratic governments increasingly see it as a strategic threat, a danger to the founda­tions of the state, society, and the interna­tional order – even to human reason and truth itself. Yet even in democracies there are influential argu­ments that deception is a necessary instrument of power that no state can afford to re­nounce. This suggests that both our practical and theoretical struggles to inquire into international de­ception might have profound consequences for security, democracy, and the study of inter­national politics.

This project investigates the relation between international de­ception and the search for political knowledge. Asking why and how deception became a central problem of se­curity but failed to be­come a political concept, it combines archival research with conceptual analysis, tracking the hidden history of Anglo-American de­ception concepts from their emergence in the Cold War to their proli­fera­tion in the present. Through four case studies of international ‘epistemic struggle’ – intelligence contests, strategic com­petitions, diplomatic crises, and cyber conflicts – it argues that deception be­came a central – yet hidden – problem of security as international actors weaponized the conduct of po­litical inquiry, systematically exploiting the methods of truth-seeking in the search for ad­versarial power. Drawing on international relations theory, intelligence studies, and the pragma­tist philosophy of science, the project explains why political science in parti­cular struggles to solve the epistemological and methodological problems of de­ception, and why these intellectual traps are becoming in­creasingly central to the conduct of international security.

Photo: Dan Asaki via Unsplash. Unsplash License.

Members

Project Lead

Samuel Forsythe

Sam Forsythe

Publications

  • Rüstungsdynamiken: Rüstungskontrolle und Desinformation
    | 2023
    Daase, Christopher; Driedger, Jonas J.; Burck, Kristoffer; Fehl, Caroline; Wisotzki, Simone; Forsythe, Sam; Hach, Sascha; Jakob, Una; Schörnig, Niklas; Lambach, Daniel (2023): Rüstungsdynamiken: Rüstungskontrolle und Desinformation, in: onn International Center for Conversion (BICC)/Leibniz-Institut Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung (HSFK)/Institut für Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik an der Universität Hamburg (IFSH)/Institut für Entwicklung und Frieden (INEF) (eds), Friedensgutachten 2023, Bielefeld: transcript Verlag, 85-101.
    Publication
  • Adversarial Abduction: The Logic of Detection and Deception
    | 2024
    Forsythe, Sam (2024): Adversarial Abduction: The Logic of Detection and Deception, in: Magnani, Lorenzo (eds), Handbook of Abductive Cognition. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-68436-5_32-1
    Publication
  • Introduction to the Special Issue on Secrecy and Technologies
    | 2024
    Forsythe, Sam; Stevens, Clare (2024): Introduction to the Special Issue on Secrecy and Technologies, Secrecy and Society, 3: 1. DOI: 10.55917/2377-6188.1081
    Publication
  • The war for the future
    | 2020
    Forsythe, Sam; Rößing, Anna (2020): The war for the future, New Perspectives. DOI: 10.1177/2336825X20935234