Political Options: AI and Nuclear Decision-Making

In the context of the third preparatory meeting for the 2026 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, Jana Baldus was in­vited to the meeting of states at the UN in Geneva to participate as an expert in a dis­cussion on the topic of “Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Decision-Making”. The event, hosted by the German Fede­ral Foreign Office and organized by the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH), took a criti­cal look at the latest technological advances in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), which have led to fears that AI-supported systems could be in­tegrated into certain nuclear operations.

Particularly the potential use of AI in nuclear command, control, and communications (C³), but also for re­mote reconnaissance purposes, has become a matter of increasing debate. Some argue that AI could support rapid decision-making in a crisis and give decision-makers a clearer picture. Others argue that AI may lead to hasty decisions, based on non-verifiable data. Re­cent years have seen multiple initiatives to address these and other issues. The side event addressed pre­cisely these questions: What initiatives and con­cepts are most promising for addressing AI and nuclear decision-making? Do we need to re­think older arms control con­cepts or come up with entirely new frame­works to govern AI? Is regulating certain AI uses futile because of the very dual-use nature of the technology? Is the promise to keep humans in the loop e­nough to make AI systems safe? What role could the United Nations play in the gover­nance of AI? In her brief presentation and the subsequent Q&A session, Jana Baldus dis­cussed political options and arms control mechanisms to minimize the risks of AI use in nu­clear command, control and communications.

The event is taking place at an im­portant time, as nuclear arms control is in a deep crisis due to the Russian attack on Ukraine, among other things, but at the same time techno­logical progress is ad­vancing rapidly. The pre­paratory meeting for the NPT Review Conference, which takes place from July 22 to August 2, will focus on ways to re­duce nuclear risks and restore international consensus on nuclear disarmament.