On January 1, 2024, the new research project PATTERN was launched at PRIF. The aim of the project is to explore analogies between the Cold War era and the current threat to the European peace and security architecture in order to make them usable for contemporary decisions. Cooperation partner is the Berlin Centre for Cold War Studies at the Leibniz-Institute of Contemporary History. The results will be made available to decision-makers in politics and the public.
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has severely damaged the European security order. Europe finds itself in a state of confrontation that can only be compared to the most dangerous phases of the Cold War. PATTERN will analyse this situation.
Stefan Kroll, who is leading the project at PRIF together with Nicole Deitelhoff and Matthias Dembinski, explains the relevance of the project for dealing with the current threat situation: "We are asking what can be learnt from the historical experience of the Cold War in order to deal with the current situation of confrontation with Russia, but also with other antagonistic superpowers. What regulated forms of deterrence, coexistence or cooperation can be used to manage contemporary conflict constellations?"
The researchers assume that some historical analogies to the Cold War are justified and can be used for current decisions. However, they see an essential prerequisite for this in a well-founded historical-political analysis. In terms of methodology, PATTERN pursues an applied historical approach that aims to identify similarities and differences between eras from which recurring patterns of conflict can be derived.
The groundbreaking project, for which political scientists and historians are cooperating, will focus on three key policy areas: firstly, nuclear threats and associated risks, secondly, forms of hybrid warfare and thirdly, crisis management.
The project will run for three years and is funded by the Leibniz Association. In addition to the Berlin Centre for Cold War Studies, other German and international partners are also involved.