More Gradualism than Shock? Observations on how Syria’s New Islamist Rulers Are Building a State

When Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies swept into Damascus in December 2024, many observers feared a replication of the Taliban’s take­over of Afghanis­tan. After all, HTS was a group with roots in Al-Qaeda and IS, ideologically committed to establishing an Islamic state. Yet a year into their rule, the most striking feature of Syria’s political transition is not revolutionary zeal but gradualism in institution-building, in many cases working within and slowly reforming existing bureau­cratic structures rather than replacing them whole­sale. Whether this approach succeeds will be decisive for Syria’s stability. This analysis is based on inter­views with mid-level and local gover­nance officials in Syria in May and December 2025.